Every Chennaities have this question in mind 'will it rain again heavily in december end'. Now let me walkthrough on the possible things that has to be watched out closely that may lead to rain towards december end. For better clarity I am comparing the situation with December 1st rain
1. Jet Stream
Jet streams are air currents at height above 9 km, which influences climate by their wavy movement.
Dec 1st
----------
Lets look at the jet stream on Dec 1st. This jet stream is very wavy(ups and down) and raising upwards and not passing through Bay of Bengal. Thus there is not much disturbance for the easterlies(winds from east to west) to pass through Bay of Bengal and hit Tamil Nadu east coast
Dec 20th
------------
The jet stream captured today is not much wavy compared to Dec 1st and we can notice it passes through northern part of Bay of Bengal. Hence this makes difficult for the easterlies to pass through Bay of Bengal but manages to hit south Tamil Nadu.
2. Low Pressure
Low pressure eases water to condense and form clouds.
Dec 1st
----------
In the december 1st MSLP(Mean Sea Level Pressure) image we can clearly see existence of low pressure off Chennai coast. (The more darker the lesser the pressure)
Dec 20th
------------
Pretty clear from the image that Chennai is enjoying high pressure and super hot during day time.
3. Water Precipitation
More the water vapour condensed to form clouds, more the precipitation
Dec 1st
----------
Look at the humungous amount of water precipitation in Bay of Bengal. This lead to the disastrous rainfall that happened on December 1st with the wind doing the job of carrying the rain bands and pouring in Chennai and east coast of TN.
Dec 20th
------------
Almost nothing in precipitation level when compared to December 1st precipitation in the Bay of Bengal. Hence Chennai is clearly very far away from any rain or no rain for atleast one week. But we can see the precipitation pretty much near to Sri Lanka that has lead to rainfall in south TN last 2 days.
Ok, now coming back to the question on 'Will it rain towards Dec end?'. All of these things like jet stream, pressure, water precipitation are inter related and they keep changing over time based on several factors. So for it to rain towards Dec end some activity(low pressure, water precipitation) has to happen in Bay of Bengal. But looking at current state, it is very much unlikely to have an activity in Bay of Bengal that could lead to continuous heavy rain in Chennai atleast till december end. Again the disclaimer - this is pretty much high level analysis of my own perception that I have observed last few weeks and I am sure that it is very much possible my analysis can be irrelevant. Please apologise if something is too far away from context.
From GFS forecast, there is some activity(low pressure) in south east tip of Bay of Bengal on Jan 5th. Will track them closely and will provide the updates.
Remember that Jet Stream does move and weather does change over a period of time and we cannot ignore the El Nino forecast to watch out till March 2016.
#chennaimazhai #chennairains #chennaiweather
References:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jet_stream
http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/
https://www.youtube.com/watch?
1. Jet Stream
Jet streams are air currents at height above 9 km, which influences climate by their wavy movement.
Dec 1st
----------
Lets look at the jet stream on Dec 1st. This jet stream is very wavy(ups and down) and raising upwards and not passing through Bay of Bengal. Thus there is not much disturbance for the easterlies(winds from east to west) to pass through Bay of Bengal and hit Tamil Nadu east coast
Dec 20th
------------
The jet stream captured today is not much wavy compared to Dec 1st and we can notice it passes through northern part of Bay of Bengal. Hence this makes difficult for the easterlies to pass through Bay of Bengal but manages to hit south Tamil Nadu.
2. Low Pressure
Low pressure eases water to condense and form clouds.
Dec 1st
----------
In the december 1st MSLP(Mean Sea Level Pressure) image we can clearly see existence of low pressure off Chennai coast. (The more darker the lesser the pressure)
Dec 20th
------------
Pretty clear from the image that Chennai is enjoying high pressure and super hot during day time.
3. Water Precipitation
More the water vapour condensed to form clouds, more the precipitation
Dec 1st
----------
Look at the humungous amount of water precipitation in Bay of Bengal. This lead to the disastrous rainfall that happened on December 1st with the wind doing the job of carrying the rain bands and pouring in Chennai and east coast of TN.
Dec 20th
------------
Almost nothing in precipitation level when compared to December 1st precipitation in the Bay of Bengal. Hence Chennai is clearly very far away from any rain or no rain for atleast one week. But we can see the precipitation pretty much near to Sri Lanka that has lead to rainfall in south TN last 2 days.
Ok, now coming back to the question on 'Will it rain towards Dec end?'. All of these things like jet stream, pressure, water precipitation are inter related and they keep changing over time based on several factors. So for it to rain towards Dec end some activity(low pressure, water precipitation) has to happen in Bay of Bengal. But looking at current state, it is very much unlikely to have an activity in Bay of Bengal that could lead to continuous heavy rain in Chennai atleast till december end. Again the disclaimer - this is pretty much high level analysis of my own perception that I have observed last few weeks and I am sure that it is very much possible my analysis can be irrelevant. Please apologise if something is too far away from context.
From GFS forecast, there is some activity(low pressure) in south east tip of Bay of Bengal on Jan 5th. Will track them closely and will provide the updates.
Remember that Jet Stream does move and weather does change over a period of time and we cannot ignore the El Nino forecast to watch out till March 2016.
#chennaimazhai #chennairains #chennaiweather
References:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jet_stream
http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/
https://www.youtube.com/watch?
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